2014 Tony Awards Predictions

With all due respect to the Miss USA pageant and Game 2 of the NBA Finals, the big, must-see TV event for many arts lovers this Sunday night will be the Tony Awards which honor the best performances and productions on Broadway.

The Tony Awards will air at 8 p.m. EST Sunday on CBS; Miss USA will be vying for the sparkly crown at 8 p.m. EST on NBC; and the Miami Heat will battle against the San Antonio Spurs to keep their championship crown, beginning at 8 p.m. EST on ABC.

As with most awards these days, predicting winners has become something of a sport. And who are we to stand in the way of that tradition. So here, with quotes from some of the top nominees on their roles, as well as comments from some notable Broadway fans, is our Tony Award predictions wrapup:

The nominees are:

Best Play

“Act One”

“All the Way”

“Casa Valentina”

“Mothers and Sons”

“Outside Mullingar”

While there are some who argue that “Act One” will take the Tony, there’s a strong contingent who insist that Bryan Cranston’s performance as President Lyndon B. Johnson in “All The Way” will take this play all the way to a Tony Award for Best Play. “All The Way” has already snagged a Drama Desk Award, always a good indicator of Tony success.

Best Musical

“After Midnight”

“Aladdin”

“Beautiful — The Carole King Musical”

“A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder”

Broadway politics are making this a Tony category that’s too close to call.

The Broadway community and fans have been loving “After Midnight” but the show’s lack of an original score seems to be a strike against it in some eyes. That same lament applies to sentimental favorite “Beautiful – The Carole King Musical.”

That leaves “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder” (which leads all Tony nominees with 10) – the Drama Desk winner that’s been a hit with critics (and is the only nominee with an original book and score) but a miss at the box office. Don’t be surprised if “Beautiful” squeaks through with a win; word is a block of voters representing tour presenters are voting against “Gentleman’s Guide” because of that show’s weak box office numbers.

Best Revival of a Play

“The Cripple of Inishmaan”

“The Glass Menagerie”

“A Raisin in the Sun”

“Twelfth Night”

The prognosticators are all over the place with this category. “A Raisin in the Sun” and “The Glass Menagerie” are sentimental favorites, but there seems to be a strong push for the exemplary all-male production of William Shakespeare’s “Twelfth Night.”

Best Revival of a Musical

“Hedwig and the Angry Inch”

“Les Misérables”

“Violet”

This is one of the few categories with a shoo-in winner  — Neil Patrick Harris and “Hedwig.”

Best Book of a Musical

“Aladdin”

“Beautiful—The Carole King Musical”

“Bullets Over Broadway”

“A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder”

The smart money says this will go to “Gentleman’s Guide.”

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

“Aladdin”

“The Bridges of Madison County”

“A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder”

“If/Then”

As so often happens with the Tony’s, the real race, insiders say, will come down to two lesser-known shows—“Bridges” and “Gentleman’s Guide.” If “Bridges” wins here, that could also mean a win for leading lady Kelli O’Hara who is in danger of becoming the Susan Lucci of the Tony’s.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Nominees:

Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night

Bryan Cranston, All the Way

Chris O’Dowd, Of Mice and Men

Mark Rylance, Richard III

Tony Shalhoub, Act One

The prognosticators seem to agree—this is the year of Bryan Cranston, the “Breaking Bad” star who plays President Lyndon Baines Johnson in “All The Way.”

Here, Bryan Cranston talks about his character–LBJ – in “All The Way”:

“People close to him would say they weren’t fond of him, but they loved him. I found that fascinating: ‘I didn’t like him, but I loved him.’ They didn’t like how he mistreated people. But his heart? His intentions were honorable.  For the most part.”

—From The Guardian 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill
Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

If Audra McDonald doesn’t win her sixth Tony for her performance as Billie Holliday, it will be major news. Despite a few whispered complaints that “Lady Day” is really a musical in play’s clothing, McDonald’s tortured performance has earned universal praise.

Here’s Audra McDonald on the possibility of making history as the first actress to win in all four acting categories:

“I won’t feel like a failure if it doesn’t happen, and I’ll probably pass out if it does,” said Ms. McDonald, 43 years old, seated in her dressing room amid orchids and Holiday images. “My life has already exceeded anything that I could have dreamed up.”

—Wall Street Journal

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Ramin Karimloo, Les Misérables
Andy Karl, Rocky
Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder
Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder

This is one of the few categories where there seems to be a general consensus about who will win: Neil Patrick Harris for his performance as the transvestite rocker in “Hedwig and the Angry Inch.”

Here’s Anna Wintour, Condé Nast artistic director and editor-in-chief of Vogue from a New York Times story on Tony predictions:

“This was clearly the year for men on Broadway to strut their stuff in women’s clothes, and no one did it with more passion, panache and sheer star power than Neil Patrick Harris, who will undoubtedly win the Tony for his electrifying performance as a glam rock almost-diva in ‘Hedwig and the Angry Inch.’ The fierce charisma, the raw emotion, those legs!”

And here, Harris compares his role in “Hedwig” to his role on television’s “How I Met Your Mother”:

“Playing Barney Stinson required a level of fearlessness that I don’t really possess as Neil, but as an actor he had to possess because he was sort of the fifth wheel, guns a-blazing guy that wanted a crazy adventure. So I got to do that for a long time,” (Harris) said. “And that plays into Hedwig’s life. She’s fearless. She’s like a shooting star, that she’s terrified that that light is going to extinguish.”

—From CBS New York

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Mary Bridget Davies, A Night With Janis Joplin
Sutton Foster, Violet
Idina Menzel, If/Then
Jessie Mueller, Beautiful — The Carole King Musical
Kelli O’Hara, The Bridges of Madison County

Despite all the powerhouse actresses in this category, first time nominee Jessie Mueller has  emerged as the frontrunner in this category for her performance as singer Carole King in “Beautiful – The Carole King Musical.” There are still a number of Broadway insiders who insist this is finally O’Hara’s year, but Mueller’s win at the Drama Desk Awards suggests O’Hara may continue to be a bridesmaid.

Here’s Jessie Mueller on Carole King and Mueller’s own trajectory as an actress:

“A lot of people put Carole on this feminist pedestal, made her this icon, but it took her a lot of work to get to that point. She had to learn how to be out front,” Mueller said. “And I feel like I’m dealing with something similar in my own way, where my life has changed and my work has changed and there have been these opportunities given to me and it’s, like, ‘How do you deal with that and stay the person you are?'”

—Los Angeles Times

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night
Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie

Mark Rylance, generally recognized as the English theater’s leading actor these days, made Broadway history this year, becoming the first actor to be nominated for two performances in the same year (four  women have accomplished that feat but Rylance is the first man). Rylance, whom Time Magazine dubbed the Shakespearean superstar, was also nominated for Best Actor for his performance in “Richard III” but it’s Rylance’s performance as Olivia in “Twelfth Night”—a nod to Elizabethan-era tradition—that experts say will snag the Tony.

Here’s Mark Rylance on how performing on Broadway helped him further develop his performances:

“I must say I found the wit and the attention of the audience and often the very wonderful actors who came to see the show [inspiring]… When they were sitting there, I would think, ‘How would he do it? Oh, he’d do it like this. She’d do it like this.’ The part really developed and grew, and I felt I really got more of a measure of the part in New York, thanks to the audiences, than I had managed before.”

—Playbill.com

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

This category is considered wide open with no clear frontrunner. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Danny Burstein, Cabaret
Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
Joshua Henry, Violet
James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
Jarrod Spector, Beautiful — The Carole King Musical

Robin who? Iglehart, as the genie, gets standing ovations in the middle of the show every night for his performance of “Never Had a Friend Like Me.” Even the anti-Disney contingent has conceded that this Drama Desk-winning performance has been pure theater magic.

Here’s James Monroe Iglehart on the rigors of playing the genie in “Aladdin”:

“I don’t have time to think that it’s hard,” he said. “It has to seem as fluid as possible. The best way for this is to make it look effortless.” He added: “I’ve kind of waited my whole life for this. I have wanted to be a cartoon character since I was a little kid.”

—Los Angeles Times

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Linda Emond, Cabaret
Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Anika Larsen, Beautiful — The Carole King Musical
Adriane Lenox, After Midnight

This is another category that insiders agree is too close to call. 

And here are the nominees in the so-called creative categories:

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Beowulf Boritt, Act One
Bob Crowley, The Glass Menagerie
Es Devlin, Machinal
Christopher Oram, The Cripple of Inishmaan

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Christopher Barreca, Rocky
Julian Crouch, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Alexander Dodge, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder
Santo Loquasto, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Costume Design of a Play

Jane Greenwood, Act One
Michael Krass, Machinal
Rita Ryack, Casa Valentina
Jenny Tiramani, Twelfth Night

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Linda Cho, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder
William Ivey Long, Bullets Over Broadway
Arianne Phillips, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Isabel Toledo, After Midnight

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Paule Constable, The Cripple of Inishmaan
Jane Cox, Machinal
Natasha Katz, The Glass Menagerie
Japhy Weideman, Of Mice and Men

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Kevin Adams, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Christopher Akerlind, Rocky
Howell Binkley, After Midnight
Donald Holder, The Bridges of Madison County

Best Sound Design of a Play

Alex Baranowski, The Cripple of Inishmaan
Steve Canyon Kennedy, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill
Dan Moses Schreier, Act One
Matt Tierney, Machinal

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Peter Hylenski, After Midnight
Tim O’Heir, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Mick Potter, Les Misérables
Brian Ronan, Beautiful — The Carole King Musical

Best Direction of a Play

Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night
Michael Grandage, The Cripple of Inishmaan
Kenny Leon, A Raisin in the Sun
John Tiffany, The Glass Menagerie

Best Direction of a Musical

Warren Carlyle, After Midnight
Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Leigh Silverman, Violet
Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder

Best Choreography

Warren Carlyle, After Midnight
Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine, Rocky
Casey Nicholaw, Aladdin
Susan Stroman, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Orchestrations

Doug Besterman, Bullets Over Broadway
Jason Robert Brown, The Bridges of Madison County
Steve Sidwell, Beautiful — The Carole King Musical
Jonathan Tunick, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder

Recipients of Awards and Honors in Noncompetitive Categories

Special Tony Award for Lifetime Achievement in the Theatre

Jane Greenwood

Regional Theatre Award

Signature Theatre, New York

Isabelle Stevenson Award

Rosie O’Donnell

Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre

Joseph P. Benincasa

Joan Marcus

Charlotte Wilcox

—Karyn D. Collins